Zack Cozart - Rookie of the Year for 2012?

Most MLB fans won't even recognize Cozart's name unless they are an intense baseball fanatic who is knee-deep in baseball prospect stat sheets. Some may have noticed him while scouring the waiver wire in their fantasy baseball league for priceless gems just waiting to be discovered. If you haven't heard of him, let me tell you why you likely will when ROY talks begin around the second half of the season.


Zack Cozart puts up impressive numbers for a short stop and has the defense to keep his team in the game.



1) OFFENSIVE NUMBERS

Take note of Cozart's stat lines so far in the majors. Yes, I know what you statistical ANALyzers out there will be screaming - "Small sample size!!! He's played a total of 17 games in 2011/2012 combined!". Well, simmer down a little, OK? I didn't say he will maintain his gaudy numbers. Once you see them yourself you will find that it would be very difficult to do so. But if you will humor me for a moment, I would like to draw your attention to a number of factors that, when combined, should make even the most dubious analyzer raise an eyebrow.

As previously alluded to, opening day 2012 was not Cozart's rookie debut. He was brought up from AAA ball last season and played 11 games before getting slammed into by a runner at second base which hyper-extended his elbow on his non-throwing arm, sidelining him for the remainder of the season. Interestingly, in his 37 at bats prior to the injury he collected 12 hits, 2 home runs, 6 runs, and 3 RBI. His sabermetric numbers were not bad either, thought he didn't acquire any walks and struck out six times. Regardless, a .324 average (OBP was the same) .486 slugging and .811 OPS are nice numbers for a SS just called up from the minors. Those numbers were nearly identical to the 323 at bats Cozart saw in the minors that year while playing for the Louisville Bats, the Reds' AAA club - .310 AVG, .357 OBP, .467 SLG, .825 OPS. In the process he marked up 100 hits, 7 home runs, 57 runs, and 32 RBI.

The question through the off-season was, "Will Cozart's return to the line-up after surgery to his elbow prove him to be just another 'flash-in-the-pan' player, or a durable vision of consistency?"

We seem to have our answer.

2012 numbers so far:
In 22 at-bats Cozart has acquired 10 hits, 1 home run, 2 triples (only one other player in the majors has as many), 2 doubles, 6 runs, 2 RBI, 3 SO and has also walked twice. He's holding onto an unmaintainable .455 AVG, .520 OBP, .864 SLG, and 1.384 OPS!

As already noted, right now the hard-core baseball statisticians are screaming at their computer screens "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!!!!" I agree that these numbers are going to drop back down to normal levels, but there is a key factor that should not be overlooked - Cozart is getting better, not worse. Coming to the majors did not stunt his growth as a player, and his elbow injury last year didn't plague him with any set-backs. He's playing as good, if not better, than he did in AAA ball and his 11 games in the pros last season.

Then we have another facet to look at. Let's compare Cozart's performance so far this year to the elite players he shares a locker room with, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

So far he's outperforming them both in every category except for runs batted in and home runs - and he has half the strikeouts! The RBI deficiency can be explained by the fact that Zack is hitting in the 2-hole with a disappointing number of base runners getting on ahead of him. As for the home runs, Cozart was never sized up to be a 30+ home run guy, but he has been described as 'a contact hitter with some pop that is deceptively fast'. What that implies is we have another piece of Cozart's value that has yet to break out this year - stolen base potential in the 10-20 a season range. His ability to meet that number is verified when looking at his 2010 season with the Louisville Bats (AAA) when he nabbed 30 bags in 136 games.

Some may worry about the potential for pitchers to start throwing Cozart garbage that he can't swing at and then we'll watch all his offensive numbers plummet. Put that concern aside. Batting second means Cozart has home-run-threat Joey Votto coming up behind him. What pitcher wants to pitch around a rookie short stop to get to Votto? They'd rather face a hitter they have little experience throwing to than a man who sends even their better pitches into the outfield bleachers.

Another positive sign is that Cozart has shown plate discipline and lays off the bad balls waiting for a pitch he can slice into the gaps. Opposing pitchers that fall behind in the count will be forced to throw strikes, cringing as Cozart licks his rookie chops and eagerly munches on those meatballs dangling over the heart of the plate. It's a sweet position to be in and one that many good hitters have utilized such as Ryan Braun who hit in front of Prince Fielder very effectively the past couple of years.

But some who have never seen Cozart on the field might wonder if his defense will handicap his team to the point where Dusty Baker is forced to settle for the sub-par offensive stop, Paul Janish.

Short answer: Nuh uh!

2) DEFENSIVE SKILLS

What do you look for defensively at short stop? Someone who can cover ground and get to the ball before it scampers through to the outfield and turn it into an out, maybe even two. As we already discussed Cozart has been dubbed 'deceptively fast'. In the minors he had a 4.54 Range Factor (Assists+Put-outs/Games) and so far in the majors has an average RF9 (Assists+Put-outs/Innings Played) of 5.80. The league average RF9 is 4.31.

Range?  CHECK.

Also of note, so far this season Cozart is ranked 8th out of all major league short stops in fielding. Not bad for a newbie who's also crushing the ball at the plate.

The best part is Zack has had no problem fitting in with Brandon Phillips and combining skills to start double plays at second base. I suppose the baseball world is used to the finesse-filled plays Phillips entertains the fans with because I tried to find a video of this fantastic double-play he got rolling in a game earlier this week, but came up with nothing. After searching online to no avail I figure the best I can do is describe it to you:

A sharp grounder back up the middle knocked down by Phillips. The runner on first, who had started running on the pitch, is hammering down the base path to second. Phillips makes a quick backhanded flip to Cozart who has zoomed in from his 3B-side adjusted position and, after making a quick foot-swipe over the second base bag, fires a rocket to first. Double play.

The point? Phillips' circus acrobatics and slight-of-hand plays are not throwing Cozart for a loop. He has instantly fallen in line with the infield crew and looks like he's been playing with the group for years. In fact, Cozart has already turned five double plays in six games, compared to his seven in 11 games last year.

 Zack Cozart is here to stay.


All evidence points to a long career in Great American Ball Park for Zack Cozart. He's only 26 so we haven't even seen his prime years. With Phillips and Votto locking down contracts for 6 and 10 years respectively, the Reds' infield should continue to stand out for years to come as a Gold Glove hot zone. Cozart has the potential to nab a few himself, and maybe even a Silver Slugger. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. First up? Rookie of the Year.


-Axon